Letter to Glen Beck
Hi Glen,
I thought you might be interested in hearing about what is happing right now in California. Banks and the government are working together and are raiding the houses of people who are successfully fighting off bank foreclosures.
About one week a house was raided by 20 or so armed police from San Diego, CA. They seized over a million dollars in hard assets and much more in bank accounts.
John and David Zepeda specialized in protecting homeowner from banks who are working on kicking them out through the foreclosure process. For the past 25-years John and David Zepeda have been fighting the banking institutions and have helped countless hundreds stay in their home when faced with foreclosure.
So how does this work? As a last ditch effort to save their house, homeowners would sign the property over to a company trust and then the property would be put into bankruptcy. This action would STOP the foreclosure process in its tracks. The home owner would stay in the house while John and Dave worked with the banks towards purchasing the notes at a reduced rate.
The banks have no incentive to restructure any loans and are not working with homeowners. The banks make more money by letting the property go to foreclosure and then have the tax payers make up financial losses. John and David’s idea was to create enough aggravation for the bank so that they would be willing to listen and work on restructuring these mortgages. John and Dave represented roughly 500 homeowners in Southern California area.
3 weeks before the Police raided John and David’s house, Dave had a stroke and was hospitalized and is presently not able to move or speak.
John Zepeda was at the house during the Police raid. They detained him while they searched and seized property and then let him go. At the time they were not after him at all. John was arrested a few days later after the San Diego D.A. found out that David Zepeda was in the hospital paralyzed. John was arrested by the San Bernardino Police department for a suspended driver’s license and then shipped to San Diego a few days later for arraignment.
He is being charged with 104 felony counts and is looking at serving up to 75 years in prison. The banks are trying make them look like they have defrauded these home owners and have used coercion tactics to get people to sign their houses over to them. John and Dave have collected coins, cars and jewelry for 20+ years and the SD, District Attorney is using that against them and saying that they are living a lavish lifestyle making them out to be some type of financial gangsters. They live in a modest 4 bedroom house in the City San Bernardino, if you know the area you will know it’s not the best place to live.
Glen, I have heard you say that it is up to us, we the people, we need to stand up and do what’s right. These guys are standing up and are fighting for us the little guy and they need our help. They are getting such horrible publicity from newspapers, local news channels and on the web.
Here is a YouTube link that can help fill you in http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5lq8R3qrjHA
I am working on gathering testimonies from the homeowners that Dave and John worked with and we would like to bring this information to the press. We would appreciate any advice that you can give us on these matters. In advance I thank you for your time and consideration.
With kind regards,
Demand: fewer new households
Household creation depends on the state of the economy. The combination of high unemployment, weak wage and salary growth, and tight credit has led to a decline in household growth over the past few years. The two main surveys of household formation from the Census Bureau – the Housing Vacancy Survey and Current Population Survey – show that about 500,000 households were created annually over the past three years compared to an annual average of about 1.2 million during the first half of the decade (Figure 6). How can we explain such a notable drop in household formation?
Moving in with the folks
The obvious answer is to look at homeownership rates, which have tumbled to 66.9% from a peak of 69.2% in 4Q04. This translates to a loss of nearly 2.5 mn homeowners. Most of these homeowners became renters, which means they remain a household, but not all. As can be seen by the surge in the rental vacancy rate to 10.6%, it seems that there was not a perfect shift from homeowners to renters (Figure 7). This begs the question: what happened to these former households? There was doubling up among economically stressed households; in other words people moved in with friends or family. Many of these former homeowners were probably foreclosure victims (Figure 8).
As Figure 8 shows, household formation can also decline if there are fewer young households created to replace the aging homeowners. Given the nearly 10 point surge in the unemployment rate among 16 to 24 year olds from the trough to peak during this cycle, it seems like this was a considerable factor. A recent paper sponsored by the Research Institute for Housing America estimates that the probability of a young adult forming a household declines by 4% during a recession, and up to 10% if unemployed. In addition to the slowdown in “headship rates” domestically, there was a drop in household formation from immigration. According to the Office of Immigration Statistics at the Department of Homeland Security, the number of unauthorized immigrants decline by 1.0 million from 2007 to 2009 compared to a net gain of 1.3 million from 2005 to 2007.
Household growth to improve, but with a lag
Household formation will naturally pick up as the economy improves, but if our forecast for a sluggish recovery is realized, household growth will also be lackluster. The main factor influencing household growth will be the state of the labor market. The above-referenced paper finds that the unemployment rate must fall by 2pp from current levels to return to normal rates of household formation of about 1.2-1.4 million a year. We do not expect the unemployment rate to reach the mid-7% range until 2013, implying another two and a half years of sluggish household formation of about 800,000 a year. This is also when we expect the pace of foreclosures to slow notably, which means that fewer households will have to double-up.
Looking ahead to 2013 and beyond, we use forecasts from the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University. They present two possible trajectories for household growth: 1) an average of 1.48 million annually through 2020 assuming net immigration returns to the 2000-05 pace and headship rates at 2008 levels; and 2) an average of 1.25 million annually through 2020 assuming the same 2008 headship rates but slower immigration. We believe the latter is more likely and use this as our baseline forecast (Figure 9).
Renters will take market share
Although we expect household formation to start to improve in 2013, the homeownership rate should still fall further, suggesting that most of the gain in households will be due to an increase in renters. This is because there is still a considerable number of homeowners with mortgages in some stage of delinquency that are likely to end in foreclosure. Based on data from the Mortgage Bankers Association, there are about 5.5 mn seriously delinquent mortgages currently outstanding.
A recent paper by economists at the NY Federal Reserve (Haughwout, Andrew, Richard Peach, Joseph Tracy. “The Homeownership Gap”, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Volume 16, Number 5, May 2010) attempts to quantify the effective lower bound for the homeownership rate. They make the assumption that underwater borrowers (negative equity), who currently account for about a quarter of mortgage holders, will transition to renters over time. Subtracting these underwater borrowers yields an “effective homeownership rate” of 61.6% (Figure 10). This would be a record low in the data which goes back to 1965. We do not expect such a precipitous drop because not all underwater homeowners will become renters. Indeed, a recent study by Trulia.com and RealtyTrac found that 59% of respondents would not go into foreclosure simply because of negative equity. We believe it is more likely that the homeownership rate will bottom at 65%, returning to mid-1990s levels.
It is plainly obvious why the demand-side is so often ignored in polite conversation: it is the consumer-driven aspect of the house price variable, over which neither the Fed, nor the Treasury, nor the FHA has any authority, and which is a function purely of expectations of the future. Alas, those right now are lously and getting worse. We expect that Demand-side housing economics will take on progressively more importance in the future, as it becomes obvious that no amount of Supply-side tinkering will prevent another 20% drop in prices.
And speaking of Supply, this is also a critical factor, if much more prevalent in the daily media. Alas, that in itself does not make the problem any easier to resolve.
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"This Bud's Not For You: Beer Industry Battling California Pot Initiative," the Huffington Post tweeted yesterday in response to the news that the California Beer and Beverage Distributors donated $10000 towards defeating Prop 19. ...
Letter to Glen Beck
Hi Glen,
I thought you might be interested in hearing about what is happing right now in California. Banks and the government are working together and are raiding the houses of people who are successfully fighting off bank foreclosures.
About one week a house was raided by 20 or so armed police from San Diego, CA. They seized over a million dollars in hard assets and much more in bank accounts.John and David Zepeda specialized in protecting homeowner from banks who are working on kicking them out through the foreclosure process. For the past 25-years John and David Zepeda have been fighting the banking institutions and have helped countless hundreds stay in their home when faced with foreclosure.
So how does this work? As a last ditch effort to save their house, homeowners would sign the property over to a company trust and then the property would be put into bankruptcy. This action would STOP the foreclosure process in its tracks. The home owner would stay in the house while John and Dave worked with the banks towards purchasing the notes at a reduced rate.
The banks have no incentive to restructure any loans and are not working with homeowners. The banks make more money by letting the property go to foreclosure and then have the tax payers make up financial losses. John and David’s idea was to create enough aggravation for the bank so that they would be willing to listen and work on restructuring these mortgages. John and Dave represented roughly 500 homeowners in Southern California area.
3 weeks before the Police raided John and David’s house, Dave had a stroke and was hospitalized and is presently not able to move or speak.John Zepeda was at the house during the Police raid. They detained him while they searched and seized property and then let him go. At the time they were not after him at all. John was arrested a few days later after the San Diego D.A. found out that David Zepeda was in the hospital paralyzed. John was arrested by the San Bernardino Police department for a suspended driver’s license and then shipped to San Diego a few days later for arraignment.
He is being charged with 104 felony counts and is looking at serving up to 75 years in prison. The banks are trying make them look like they have defrauded these home owners and have used coercion tactics to get people to sign their houses over to them. John and Dave have collected coins, cars and jewelry for 20+ years and the SD, District Attorney is using that against them and saying that they are living a lavish lifestyle making them out to be some type of financial gangsters. They live in a modest 4 bedroom house in the City San Bernardino, if you know the area you will know it’s not the best place to live.
Glen, I have heard you say that it is up to us, we the people, we need to stand up and do what’s right. These guys are standing up and are fighting for us the little guy and they need our help. They are getting such horrible publicity from newspapers, local news channels and on the web.Here is a YouTube link that can help fill you in http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5lq8R3qrjHA
I am working on gathering testimonies from the homeowners that Dave and John worked with and we would like to bring this information to the press. We would appreciate any advice that you can give us on these matters. In advance I thank you for your time and consideration.
With kind regards,
Demand: fewer new households
Household creation depends on the state of the economy. The combination of high unemployment, weak wage and salary growth, and tight credit has led to a decline in household growth over the past few years. The two main surveys of household formation from the Census Bureau – the Housing Vacancy Survey and Current Population Survey – show that about 500,000 households were created annually over the past three years compared to an annual average of about 1.2 million during the first half of the decade (Figure 6). How can we explain such a notable drop in household formation?
Moving in with the folks
The obvious answer is to look at homeownership rates, which have tumbled to 66.9% from a peak of 69.2% in 4Q04. This translates to a loss of nearly 2.5 mn homeowners. Most of these homeowners became renters, which means they remain a household, but not all. As can be seen by the surge in the rental vacancy rate to 10.6%, it seems that there was not a perfect shift from homeowners to renters (Figure 7). This begs the question: what happened to these former households? There was doubling up among economically stressed households; in other words people moved in with friends or family. Many of these former homeowners were probably foreclosure victims (Figure 8).As Figure 8 shows, household formation can also decline if there are fewer young households created to replace the aging homeowners. Given the nearly 10 point surge in the unemployment rate among 16 to 24 year olds from the trough to peak during this cycle, it seems like this was a considerable factor. A recent paper sponsored by the Research Institute for Housing America estimates that the probability of a young adult forming a household declines by 4% during a recession, and up to 10% if unemployed. In addition to the slowdown in “headship rates” domestically, there was a drop in household formation from immigration. According to the Office of Immigration Statistics at the Department of Homeland Security, the number of unauthorized immigrants decline by 1.0 million from 2007 to 2009 compared to a net gain of 1.3 million from 2005 to 2007.
Household growth to improve, but with a lag
Household formation will naturally pick up as the economy improves, but if our forecast for a sluggish recovery is realized, household growth will also be lackluster. The main factor influencing household growth will be the state of the labor market. The above-referenced paper finds that the unemployment rate must fall by 2pp from current levels to return to normal rates of household formation of about 1.2-1.4 million a year. We do not expect the unemployment rate to reach the mid-7% range until 2013, implying another two and a half years of sluggish household formation of about 800,000 a year. This is also when we expect the pace of foreclosures to slow notably, which means that fewer households will have to double-up.
Looking ahead to 2013 and beyond, we use forecasts from the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University. They present two possible trajectories for household growth: 1) an average of 1.48 million annually through 2020 assuming net immigration returns to the 2000-05 pace and headship rates at 2008 levels; and 2) an average of 1.25 million annually through 2020 assuming the same 2008 headship rates but slower immigration. We believe the latter is more likely and use this as our baseline forecast (Figure 9).Renters will take market share
Although we expect household formation to start to improve in 2013, the homeownership rate should still fall further, suggesting that most of the gain in households will be due to an increase in renters. This is because there is still a considerable number of homeowners with mortgages in some stage of delinquency that are likely to end in foreclosure. Based on data from the Mortgage Bankers Association, there are about 5.5 mn seriously delinquent mortgages currently outstanding.
A recent paper by economists at the NY Federal Reserve (Haughwout, Andrew, Richard Peach, Joseph Tracy. “The Homeownership Gap”, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Volume 16, Number 5, May 2010) attempts to quantify the effective lower bound for the homeownership rate. They make the assumption that underwater borrowers (negative equity), who currently account for about a quarter of mortgage holders, will transition to renters over time. Subtracting these underwater borrowers yields an “effective homeownership rate” of 61.6% (Figure 10). This would be a record low in the data which goes back to 1965. We do not expect such a precipitous drop because not all underwater homeowners will become renters. Indeed, a recent study by Trulia.com and RealtyTrac found that 59% of respondents would not go into foreclosure simply because of negative equity. We believe it is more likely that the homeownership rate will bottom at 65%, returning to mid-1990s levels.
It is plainly obvious why the demand-side is so often ignored in polite conversation: it is the consumer-driven aspect of the house price variable, over which neither the Fed, nor the Treasury, nor the FHA has any authority, and which is a function purely of expectations of the future. Alas, those right now are lously and getting worse. We expect that Demand-side housing economics will take on progressively more importance in the future, as it becomes obvious that no amount of Supply-side tinkering will prevent another 20% drop in prices.
And speaking of Supply, this is also a critical factor, if much more prevalent in the daily media. Alas, that in itself does not make the problem any easier to resolve.
robert shumakeChemical industry <b>news</b>
Previously you would have found the latest Chemical Industry News from our news server site. Acquisitions, mergers, share prices, new chemical industry trading…
Premier League football <b>news</b> from the Barclays Premier League <b>...</b>
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<b>News</b> You Might Have Missed About Marijuana! | Mother Jones
"This Bud's Not For You: Beer Industry Battling California Pot Initiative," the Huffington Post tweeted yesterday in response to the news that the California Beer and Beverage Distributors donated $10000 towards defeating Prop 19. ...
robert shumakeChemical industry <b>news</b>
Previously you would have found the latest Chemical Industry News from our news server site. Acquisitions, mergers, share prices, new chemical industry trading…
Premier League football <b>news</b> from the Barclays Premier League <b>...</b>
Check out the latest Premier League football news from the Barclays Premier League.
<b>News</b> You Might Have Missed About Marijuana! | Mother Jones
"This Bud's Not For You: Beer Industry Battling California Pot Initiative," the Huffington Post tweeted yesterday in response to the news that the California Beer and Beverage Distributors donated $10000 towards defeating Prop 19. ...
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